INDColts
2-3
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
12 mph
17
TENTitans
1-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
0
10
20
Titans
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
241
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.21
Rushing Yards
80
146
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.51
-2.28
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
40
113
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-12.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
+45.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U