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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ titans week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-3
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
12 mph
17
TENTitans
1-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
0
10
20
Titans
7
3
7
0
17

Spread

IND logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
269
241
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.21
Rushing Yards
80
146
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.51
-2.28
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
40
113
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-12.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
+45.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
-8.5
5
01/08
-4.1
23
12/03
-2.0
35
12/10
1.2
57
12/17
-2.2
34
12/24
4.6
79
12/28
6.1
87
01/13
-1.1
43
10/06
6.6
87
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
11/19
-1.0
44
11/26
-2.0
35
12/03
-6.3
12
12/11
2.0
63
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
09/30
-7.0
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
17
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
29
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
24
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O
01/06
-4
L
L
U
09/08
-2
L
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-3
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O