INDColts
0-7
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
62°F
027
TENTitans
3-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
62°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
7
10
Titans
3
11
0
7
21
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
311
Total Plays
77
65
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.02
Passing Yards
241
215
Comp/Att
26/49(53%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.21
Rushing Yards
158
96
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
35%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-2.62
-1.76
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
66
40
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+59.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-53.8
Market Regression
-25.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-53.8
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U