nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ titans week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
3-3
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
18 mph
13
TENTitans
3-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
3
0
3
7
6
19
Titans
3
7
0
3
0
13

Spread

IND logo
+3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
457
339
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.07
Passing Yards
286
227
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.34
Rushing Yards
171
112
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
30
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.36
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-2.32
-2.03
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
65
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-7.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.8
13
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
4.5
79
10/07
3.1
70
10/14
-7.6
8
10/21
-0.0
50
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Value
Ptile
11/20
-4.1
24
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
01/01
-6
L
L
U
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
-5
L
L
U
10/07
3
W
W
O
10/14
-26
L
L
O
10/21
4
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O