INDColts
3-3
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
18 mph
13
TENTitans
3-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
3
0
3
7
6
19
Titans
3
7
0
3
0
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
457
339
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.07
Passing Yards
286
227
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.34
Rushing Yards
171
112
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.36
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-2.32
-2.03
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
65
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-7.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U