INDColts
5-3
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
6 mph
17
TENTitans
6-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
10
8
7
28
Titans
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
430
294
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
6.2
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.11
Passing Yards
297
137
Comp/Att
29/39(74%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.16
Rushing Yards
133
157
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
7
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-1.53
-2.90
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
73
30
Penalty EPA
-8.87
-2.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-51.5
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U