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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ titans week 11, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
6-3
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
3 mph
27
TENTitans
4-5
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
6
17
7
30
Titans
14
3
0
10
27

Spread

IND logo
TEN logo
3
P

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
366
340
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
229
218
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.36
Rushing Yards
137
122
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.14
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.04
-2.63
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
34
Penalty EPA
-4.24
-3.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
-23.4
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
01/06
-2.1
35
09/08
3.8
76
09/15
1.9
63
09/22
1.6
61
09/29
1.5
61
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
2.6
66
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
18
21
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
9
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/06
-15
L
L
U
09/08
4
W
L
U
09/15
-4
L
L
O
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
34
W
W
U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
18
W
W
O
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O