INDColts
6-3
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
3 mph
27
TENTitans
4-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
6
17
7
30
Titans
14
3
0
10
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
340
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
229
218
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.36
Rushing Yards
137
122
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.14
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.04
-2.63
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
34
Penalty EPA
-4.24
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Titans+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-23.3
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
18
21
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U