INDColts
4-4
13
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
021
MINVikings
5-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
1
0
6
7
Vikings
0
0
14
7
21
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
415
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.16
Passing Yards
159
282
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
29/35(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.09
Rushing Yards
68
133
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.47
-20.86
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-30
Sack EPA
-3.07
-14.38
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
50
41
Penalty EPA
-4.52
-2.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+29.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
134.1
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.0
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U