WASCommanders
5-7
24
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
5-7
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
7
3
24
Bears
0
7
14
0
21
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
377
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.04
Passing Yards
275
290
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.17
Rushing Yards
99
87
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.71
-5.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-25
Sack EPA
-5.33
-9.74
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
63
79
Penalty EPA
-7.56
-6.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
15
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U