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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ bears week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
5-7
24
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
5-7
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
7
3
24
Bears
0
7
14
0
21

Spread

WAS logo
+4

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
374
377
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.04
Passing Yards
275
290
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.17
Rushing Yards
99
87
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.71
-5.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-25
Sack EPA
-5.33
-9.74
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
63
79
Penalty EPA
-7.56
-6.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.9
Net QB Adjustment
-8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
09/24
-1.2
42
10/04
5.8
86
10/11
-3.2
28
10/18
-3.8
23
10/25
12.6
99
11/08
-2.5
32
11/15
5.8
86
11/22
-3.3
27
11/29
5.1
83
12/07
-0.4
49
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
15
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
28
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26

EPA

EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
10
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
27
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-11
L
L
O
10/04
3
W
W
U
10/11
-6
L
W
U
10/18
-14
L
L
O
10/25
1
W
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/15
33
W
W
O
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/29
6
W
W
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O