WASCommanders
1-0
35
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
033
DENBroncos
0-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
11
7
14
35
Broncos
14
7
3
9
33
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
399
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.8
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
266
277
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.07
Rushing Yards
124
122
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.86
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-33
-31
Sack EPA
-8.81
-12.70
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
71
58
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-13.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+58.4
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
Value
Ptile
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
6
21
Broncos Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
19
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U