WASCommanders
2-4
21
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
8 mph
45
DENBroncos
6-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
8
0
15
Broncos
7
0
7
25
39
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
58
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
446
Total Plays
70
80
Yards / Play
3.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.01
Passing Yards
154
339
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.02
Rushing Yards
112
107
Rush Attempts
28
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
29
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
4
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-27.07
-19.22
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-15
Sack EPA
-8.06
-6.76
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+34.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
-30.5
Final Difference
269.5
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+34.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Broncos Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-0-1
O/U