WASCommanders
2-5
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
0
10
Broncos
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
273
Total Plays
68
51
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
230
190
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.14
Rushing Yards
112
83
Rush Attempts
24
21
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.03
-3.09
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-40
-23
Sack EPA
-7.70
-4.61
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+55.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+67.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-63.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.1
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Broncos Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
23
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U