WASCommanders
7-6
38
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
18 mph
21
CLEBrowns
5-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
14
14
38
Browns
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
430
291
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.20
Passing Yards
308
233
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.36
Rushing Yards
122
58
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
13
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-9.63
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-11
Sack EPA
-2.41
-3.44
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+105.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-106.7
Market Regression
+61.7
Final Difference
123.5
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-106.7
No recent game data available
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U