WASCommanders
1-2
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
11 mph
22
TBBuccaneers
1-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
14
0
3
24
Buccaneers
3
3
7
9
22
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
373
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
7.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.14
Passing Yards
321
293
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.01
Rushing Yards
153
80
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
18%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.88
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-6
Sack EPA
-1.09
-1.46
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
73
107
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-10.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-47.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
23.5
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
Value
Ptile
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
22
4
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
8-1-1
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U