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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cardinals week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
-
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
6
ARICardinals
-
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
21
0
3
24
Cardinals
0
0
0
6
6

Spread

WAS logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
429
213
Total Plays
75
52
Yards / Play
5.7
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.21
Passing Yards
247
145
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.42
Rushing Yards
182
68
Rush Attempts
42
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
46%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-1.22
-4.21
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.35
-2.16
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
63
67
Penalty EPA
-10.05
-8.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+77.5
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+9.9
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
7.4
92
10/30
0.4
55
11/05
2.7
71
11/19
-3.0
32
11/26
-0.8
46
12/03
12.8
99
12/10
-5.0
19
12/16
6.5
89
12/24
3.3
77
01/06
2.5
70
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
11/13
3.1
74
11/20
-0.6
44
11/24
1.0
56
12/01
1.0
56
12/11
5.5
85
12/18
-2.3
32
12/24
6.2
87
01/01
7.0
90
09/11
8.9
96
10/09
-10.7
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
30
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
8
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
W
O
11/23
10
W
W
U
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/17
5
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-33
L
L
U
11/05
10
W
W
U
11/09
-6
L
P
U
11/19
-10
L
L
O
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-16
L
L
O
12/10
5
W
W
U
12/17
-5
L
L
U
12/24
23
W
W
U
12/31
2
W
W
O