WASCommanders
-
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
06
ARICardinals
-
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
21
0
3
24
Cardinals
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
213
Total Plays
75
52
Yards / Play
5.7
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.21
Passing Yards
247
145
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.42
Rushing Yards
182
68
Rush Attempts
42
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
46%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-1.22
-4.21
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.35
-2.16
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
63
67
Penalty EPA
-10.05
-8.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+76.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U