WASCommanders
2-2
+2.5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0-2.5
LACChargers
3-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+13.8
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
18
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U