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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ chargers week 5, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-2
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
10
LACChargers
3-1
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
10
7
27
Chargers
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
389
336
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
7.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.11
Passing Yards
226
181
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.41
Rushing Yards
163
155
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
29%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.10
-8.05
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-5
-29
Sack EPA
-0.49
-7.64
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
48
85
Penalty EPA
-8.23
-10.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
6.0
84
12/15
1.0
55
12/22
9.1
95
12/29
4.9
79
01/05
-9.0
4
01/12
3.5
72
01/18
7.2
91
01/26
2.8
68
09/07
1.7
62
09/11
-2.7
31
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
12/28
7.9
92
01/05
10.1
96
01/11
-11.8
1
09/05
6.8
91
09/15
2.9
72
09/21
-3.7
25
09/28
-5.0
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Commanders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
7
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Chargers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
18
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
27
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
6
W
W
O
01/05
4
W
L
U
01/12
3
W
W
U
01/18
14
W
W
O
01/26
-32
L
L
O
09/07
15
W
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/21
17
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
O
01/11
-20
L
L
O
09/05
6
W
W
O
09/15
11
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-3
L
L
U