WASCommanders
2-2
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
010
LACChargers
3-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
10
7
27
Chargers
10
0
0
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
336
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
7.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.11
Passing Yards
226
181
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.41
Rushing Yards
163
155
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
29%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.10
-8.05
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-5
-29
Sack EPA
-0.49
-7.64
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
48
85
Penalty EPA
-8.23
-10.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
23
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
25
25
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U