WASCommanders
5-7
13
TBD
StubHub Center
81°F
4 mph
30
LACChargers
6-6
TBD
StubHub Center
81°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
1
7
Chargers
13
10
7
0
30
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
201
488
Total Plays
50
71
Yards / Play
4.0
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.00
Passing Yards
136
314
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.03
Rushing Yards
65
174
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
24
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
17%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.86
-11.53
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-3.35
-1.99
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+65.4
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+35.4
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U