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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cowboys week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-0
16
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
18
DALCowboys
1-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
6
3
7
0
16
Cowboys
3
6
3
6
18

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
298
375
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.11
Passing Yards
233
250
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.06
Rushing Yards
65
125
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.94
-6.42
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-4.98
-1.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-7.08
-6.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
-6.8
Final Difference
145.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
11/18
-0.8
43
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64
09/18
-0.6
47
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
01/09
3.7
74
01/17
-7.7
9
09/12
4.4
78
09/19
4.0
76
09/26
7.0
90
10/10
0.6
52
10/17
6.3
88
10/25
-1.4
41
09/11
2.5
69
09/18
6.1
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17

EPA

EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
19
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
13
W
W
O
11/21
16
W
W
O
11/25
-3
L
W
O
12/05
3
W
W
O
12/12
-3
L
W
O
12/19
3
W
L
O
12/25
-1
L
L
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
3
W
P
O