WASCommanders
1-2
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
025
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
3
0
10
Cowboys
3
9
3
10
25
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
279
Total Plays
71
57
Yards / Play
4.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.05
Passing Yards
155
217
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.06
Rushing Yards
142
62
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-6
Sack EPA
-2.93
-2.14
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
136
20
Penalty EPA
-15.03
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+27.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-129.8
Home QB Adjustment
-136.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-136.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
23
5
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U