WASCommanders
4-6
38
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
5-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
28
0
10
38
Cowboys
3
0
10
18
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
460
Total Plays
62
76
Yards / Play
7.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.07
Passing Yards
288
423
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
37/62(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.08
Rushing Yards
149
37
Rush Attempts
32
12
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-11.99
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-18
Sack EPA
-3.98
-3.11
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
41
45
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-10.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.5%
Spread Pick
Cowboys-3.5
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-39.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+39.0
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
119.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+39.0
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U