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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cowboys week 12, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-6
38
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
31
DALCowboys
5-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
28
0
10
38
Cowboys
3
0
10
18
31

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
437
460
Total Plays
62
76
Yards / Play
7.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.07
Passing Yards
288
423
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
37/62(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.08
Rushing Yards
149
37
Rush Attempts
32
12
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-11.99
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-18
Sack EPA
-3.98
-3.11
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
41
45
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-10.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-39.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+39.0
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
119.6
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+39.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
7.0
90
09/16
9.3
95
09/23
2.9
68
09/30
7.7
92
10/07
-4.2
23
10/14
12.5
99
10/21
6.9
89
10/28
-2.1
35
11/04
-1.9
36
11/18
10.8
97
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
09/05
5.5
84
09/16
-0.1
49
09/23
-4.6
21
10/01
-2.6
32
10/14
4.1
75
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
-2.9
31
11/04
5.5
85
11/11
1.1
57
11/18
-0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
2
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9

EPA

EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
20
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
-3
L
L
O
09/23
-7
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
U
10/14
12
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/18
25
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
6
W
L
U
10/01
-16
L
L
O
10/14
-2
L
W
O
10/21
5
W
W
U
10/28
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
L
U
11/11
15
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
L
U