WASCommanders
6-3
26
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
9-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
20
26
Cowboys
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
505
353
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
6.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.35
Passing Yards
--
190
Comp/Att
41/54(76%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.43
Rushing Yards
56
163
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.46
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
25
Penalty EPA
-3.90
-1.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+61.5
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+42.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.3
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+42.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
16
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
30
18
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Cowboys
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U