WASCommanders
5-8
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
033
DALCowboys
4-9
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
7
16
30
Cowboys
10
10
10
3
33
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
434
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.11
Passing Yards
290
300
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.33
Rushing Yards
55
134
Rush Attempts
15
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-5
Sack EPA
-9.15
-2.37
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
25
70
Penalty EPA
-2.64
-7.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+242
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-50.7
Away QB Adjustment
-87.8
Market Regression
+32.7
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-87.8
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-50.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
29
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
10-0
O/U