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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cowboys week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
5-8
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
33
DALCowboys
4-9
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
7
16
30
Cowboys
10
10
10
3
33

Spread

WAS logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
345
434
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.11
Passing Yards
290
300
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.33
Rushing Yards
55
134
Rush Attempts
15
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-5
Sack EPA
-9.15
-2.37
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
25
70
Penalty EPA
-2.64
-7.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-50.7
Away QB Adjustment
-87.8
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-87.8
Value
Ptile
01/21
-1.7
39
02/04
-1.2
43
09/09
-5.7
14
09/16
-6.2
11
09/23
-9.7
2
11/18
-0.8
43
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
J. Kitna headshot

J. Kitna

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-50.7
Value
Ptile
09/14
-6.0
11
09/21
-5.6
12
10/05
-6.2
9
10/31
-1.8
38
11/07
-5.2
17
11/14
6.5
89
11/21
7.5
92
11/25
3.9
76
12/05
1.2
56
12/12
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
29
RZ Efficiency
8
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
10-0
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/25
-6
L
L
O
10/31
-18
L
L
O
11/07
-38
L
L
O
11/14
13
W
W
O
11/21
16
W
W
O
11/25
-3
L
W
O
12/05
3
W
W
O
12/12
-3
L
W
O