WASCommanders
8-7
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
023
DALCowboys
4-11
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
21
3
3
7
34
Cowboys
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
512
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
6.9
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.01
Passing Yards
291
412
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
11.2
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.75
+0.17
Rushing Yards
146
100
Rush Attempts
36
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
11
22
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-19.25
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-13
-23
Sack EPA
-1.65
-5.73
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
Commanders+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-151.9
Home QB Adjustment
-110.3
Away QB Adjustment
+41.6
Market Regression
-12.8
Final Difference
6.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+41.6
K. Moore
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-110.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U