WASCommanders
3-7
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
016
MIADolphins
3-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
3
3
7
0
0
13
Dolphins
3
3
0
7
3
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
311
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
207
142
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.10
Rushing Yards
172
169
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.01
+4.63
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-29
Sack EPA
-1.86
-5.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
31
39
Penalty EPA
-3.94
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
-16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-36.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
4.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-36.9
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U