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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ dolphins week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-7
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0
16
MIADolphins
3-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
3
3
7
0
0
13
Dolphins
3
3
0
7
3
16

Spread

MIA logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
379
311
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
207
142
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.10
Rushing Yards
172
169
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.01
+4.63
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-29
Sack EPA
-1.86
-5.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
31
39
Penalty EPA
-3.94
-3.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
-16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-36.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
5.8
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-36.9
Value
Ptile
10/30
2.8
74
11/06
-4.9
18
11/10
-2.7
30
11/20
1.1
60
11/27
-0.1
52
12/04
-3.1
28
09/21
4.5
80
09/28
-2.8
31
10/27
-2.5
34
11/09
2.6
70
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Value
Ptile
09/07
-9.1
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.1
50
09/29
3.5
76
10/05
4.1
77
10/12
-6.0
13
10/19
-11.0
1
10/26
5.9
89
10/30
-3.3
27
11/09
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
7
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
15
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
15
W
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/21
17
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
O
10/05
17
W
W
U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
10/26
24
W
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
U
11/09
17
W
W
U