WASCommanders
8-6
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
11 mph
20
PHIEagles
4-10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
14
0
27
Eagles
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
411
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
5.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.03
Passing Yards
185
321
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.07
Rushing Yards
128
90
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.29
-7.37
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-2.14
-11.03
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
24
--
Penalty EPA
-1.62
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-95.1
Home QB Adjustment
-63.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.1
Market Regression
-17.9
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.1
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-63.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
29
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U