WASCommanders
7-7
38
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
6 mph
24
PHIEagles
6-8
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
13
3
8
8
32
Eagles
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
398
Total Plays
75
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.08
Passing Yards
353
353
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
37/56(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.04
Rushing Yards
67
45
Rush Attempts
26
16
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
21
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
19
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.88
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-14
-27
Sack EPA
-3.09
-5.78
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
70
45
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-6.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+36.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+36.5
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U