WASCommanders
14-5
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
11 mph
55
PHIEagles
16-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
12
8
0
23
Eagles
14
13
7
21
55
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
459
Total Plays
79
67
Yards / Play
4.5
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.39
Passing Yards
253
230
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.57
Rushing Yards
99
229
Rush Attempts
25
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
41%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
7
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-17.85
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-16
Sack EPA
-6.22
-4.08
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-41.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+36.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
124.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U