nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ falcons week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-2
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
30
ATLFalcons
1-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
9
12
34
Falcons
3
14
6
7
30

Spread

WAS logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
412
374
Total Plays
64
72
Yards / Play
6.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.16
Passing Yards
290
275
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.29
Rushing Yards
122
99
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
-0.53
-1.95
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
85
36
Penalty EPA
-8.90
-6.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model45.5%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+92.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-96.5
Market Regression
-35.8
Final Difference
31.2
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-96.5
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.9
28
01/09
2.8
65
09/16
4.9
83
09/26
0.2
55
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
-13.9
0
11/29
-3.7
21
12/06
-1.6
32
12/13
-6.5
9
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
2.8
65
01/03
4.8
77
09/12
-5.7
16
09/19
0.6
57
09/26
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27

EPA

EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
25
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
U
12/13
8
W
W
U
12/20
-5
L
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
-8
L
W
O
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/26
-22
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-15
L
L
U
11/29
37
W
W
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
12/27
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-26
L
L
U
09/19
-23
L
L
O
09/26
3
W
W
U