WASCommanders
1-2
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
030
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
9
12
34
Falcons
3
14
6
7
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
374
Total Plays
64
72
Yards / Play
6.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.16
Passing Yards
290
275
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.29
Rushing Yards
122
99
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
-0.53
-1.95
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
85
36
Penalty EPA
-8.90
-6.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model45.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons+2.5
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+92.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-96.5
Market Regression
-35.7
Final Difference
30.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-96.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
23
25
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U