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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-1
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
4 mph
32
NYGGiants
0-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
15
21
Giants
10
3
3
14
30

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
395
363
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.22
Passing Yards
307
--
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.53
Rushing Yards
88
84
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.70
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.85
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
67
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-6.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
91.9
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
09/21
8.4
92
09/25
-6.3
14
10/06
3.6
75
10/12
-1.1
42
10/19
-5.2
19
09/13
-3.6
25
09/20
2.1
66
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-10.4
2
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
12/21
10.4
97
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30
09/20
4.9
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
28
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26

EPA

EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
29
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-20
L
L
U
11/23
-4
L
W
U
11/30
-22
L
L
O
12/07
-24
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
P
12/28
-27
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-21
L
L
O
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O
09/20
-4
L
L
U