WASCommanders
0-2
29
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
2 mph
27
NYGGiants
2-0
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
6
10
7
6
29
Giants
14
7
3
3
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
457
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
5.9
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
313
337
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.09
Rushing Yards
90
120
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
44%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-6.91
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-13
Sack EPA
-5.83
-2.29
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
70
128
Penalty EPA
-7.92
-9.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U