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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
0-3
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
11 mph
24
NYGGiants
1-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
0
3
Giants
7
10
1
0
18

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
176
389
Total Plays
48
68
Yards / Play
3.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.57
-0.08
Passing Yards
121
--
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.21
Rushing Yards
55
164
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
8
24
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
18%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-18.83
-17.13
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.22
--
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-8.97
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+50.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-1.1
38
12/02
-3.9
23
12/09
-1.9
34
12/15
-2.7
30
12/24
-2.3
32
12/30
1.8
60
09/08
7.9
93
09/15
2.3
68
09/23
-1.5
43
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
6.1
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20

EPA

EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
24
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
11
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
17
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
12/16
3
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
W
O
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
09/08
-18
L
L
O
09/15
-14
L
L
U
09/22
1
W
W
O