WASCommanders
0-3
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
11 mph
24
NYGGiants
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
0
3
Giants
7
10
1
0
18
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
176
389
Total Plays
48
68
Yards / Play
3.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.57
-0.08
Passing Yards
121
--
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.21
Rushing Yards
55
164
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
24
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
18%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-18.83
-17.13
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.22
--
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-8.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U