WASCommanders
5-6
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
17 mph
31
NYGGiants
7-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
0
7
Giants
14
7
7
3
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
358
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.03
Passing Yards
264
--
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.20
Rushing Yards
74
197
Rush Attempts
16
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.64
-6.11
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-6.83
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-5.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
-13.6
Market Regression
-15.2
Final Difference
192.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
27
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U