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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
5-6
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
17 mph
31
NYGGiants
7-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
0
7
Giants
14
7
7
3
31

Spread

NYG logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
338
358
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.03
Passing Yards
264
--
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.20
Rushing Yards
74
197
Rush Attempts
16
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.64
-6.11
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-6.83
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-5.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
-13.6
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
193.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Value
Ptile
09/19
6.7
90
09/26
1.4
57
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60
11/28
-4.3
21
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
09/19
-4.1
24
09/26
2.3
64
10/03
-3.4
27
10/10
3.5
72
10/17
0.9
54
10/25
4.5
79
11/07
8.1
93
11/14
6.2
88
11/21
-1.4
41
11/28
2.1
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
19
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
27
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-14
L
L
O
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-24
L
L
O
09/26
-19
L
L
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/10
24
W
W
U
10/17
8
W
L
O
10/25
6
W
W
O
11/07
34
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O