WASCommanders
6-10
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
07
NYGGiants
4-12
TBD
MetLife Stadium
38°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
0
10
16
Giants
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
177
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
5.5
3.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.41
Passing Yards
99
83
Comp/Att
9/19(47%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
2.7
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.62
Rushing Yards
226
94
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
10
Passing 1st downs
4
4
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.88
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-4.65
-9.11
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
29
--
Penalty EPA
-4.21
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-124
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-55.1
Away QB Adjustment
-46.9
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-46.9
W. Fromm
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-55.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U