WASCommanders
5-9
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
38°F
18 mph
17
JAXJaguars
8-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
38°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
10
0
0
7
3
20
Jaguars
0
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
336
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
3.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
172
258
Comp/Att
19/39(49%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.14
Rushing Yards
79
78
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
-10.84
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-41
Sack EPA
-0.95
-5.61
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
66
Penalty EPA
-5.30
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+88.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-80.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-80.1
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
20
20
Jaguars Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
3
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U