WASCommanders
2-3
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
16 mph
34
NYJJets
3-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
6
0
1
14
Jets
7
3
17
7
34
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
474
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
3.6
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.01
Passing Yards
191
--
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.05
Rushing Yards
34
221
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.89
-12.97
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.49
--
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-3.26
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+54.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U