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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ jets week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-3
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
16 mph
34
NYJJets
3-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
6
0
1
14
Jets
7
3
17
7
34

Spread

NYJ logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
225
474
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
3.6
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.01
Passing Yards
191
--
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.05
Rushing Yards
34
221
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.89
-12.97
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.49
--
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-3.26
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+54.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
09/21
8.4
92
09/25
-6.3
14
10/06
3.6
75
10/12
-1.1
42
10/19
-5.2
19
09/13
-3.6
25
09/20
2.1
66
09/24
-1.2
42
10/04
5.8
86
10/11
-3.2
28
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
-4.4
24
09/13
0.1
51
09/21
2.1
65
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-0.7
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Commanders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
28
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Jets logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26

EPA

EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
15
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
3
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-22
L
L
O
12/07
-24
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
P
12/28
-27
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/24
-11
L
L
O
10/04
3
W
W
U
10/11
-6
L
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-35
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
12/28
13
W
W
O
09/13
21
W
W
O
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/27
-7
L
L
U
10/04
13
W
W
U