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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ lions week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-2
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
3-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
14
17
Lions
0
3
7
10
20

Spread

DET logo
+1

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
413
344
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.08
Passing Yards
283
250
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.29
Rushing Yards
130
94
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.35
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
30
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-2.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model45.1%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
34.0
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
12/20
12.4
99
12/26
7.3
92
01/03
4.1
79
01/10
1.1
58
09/12
1.8
63
09/18
2.3
67
09/25
0.8
55
10/02
0.0
49
10/09
1.4
59
10/16
1.4
59
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
12/13
-2.0
36
12/21
2.5
68
12/27
5.7
86
01/03
3.2
74
09/11
10.6
98
09/18
-3.0
27
09/25
6.1
87
10/02
-5.4
14
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20

EPA

EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
6
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24

EPA

EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
24
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
17
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-22
L
L
O
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
11
W
W
O
10/09
6
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/27
15
W
W
O
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
L
U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O