WASCommanders
4-2
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
3-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
14
17
Lions
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
344
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.08
Passing Yards
283
250
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.29
Rushing Yards
130
94
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.35
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
20
30
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-2.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model44.9%
Spread Pick
Lions+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
35.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U