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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ lions week 20, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
13-5
45
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
15-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
22
0
14
39
Lions
7
14
7
3
31

Spread

WAS logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
481
521
Total Plays
73
68
Yards / Play
6.6
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
320
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.62
-0.18
Rushing Yards
182
201
Rush Attempts
42
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
8.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.50
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
27
30
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.45
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-6.77
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-4.20
-7.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model79.0%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.5%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,705
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+63.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
+4.9
Final Difference
229.9
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
Value
Ptile
11/03
4.7
78
11/10
-5.2
15
11/14
-2.8
29
11/24
3.9
75
12/01
6.0
84
12/15
1.0
55
12/22
9.1
95
12/29
4.9
79
01/05
-9.0
4
01/12
3.5
72
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
Value
Ptile
11/03
0.5
52
11/10
-7.6
6
11/17
13.0
99
11/24
-1.6
37
11/28
1.9
62
12/05
6.0
85
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31

EPA

EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
6
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
3
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
O
11/14
-8
L
L
U
11/24
-8
L
L
O
12/01
23
W
W
O
12/15
1
W
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
6
W
W
O
01/05
4
W
L
U
01/12
3
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
46
W
W
O
11/24
18
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U