WASCommanders
13-5
45
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
15-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
22
0
14
39
Lions
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
481
521
Total Plays
73
68
Yards / Play
6.6
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
320
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.62
-0.18
Rushing Yards
182
201
Rush Attempts
42
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
8.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
30
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.45
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-6.77
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-4.20
-7.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model78.9%
Spread Pick
Lions-8.5
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,708
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
229.4
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U