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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ packers week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
0-1
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
56°F
4 mph
38
GBPackers
0-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
56°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
13
20
Packers
10
14
14
0
38

Spread

GB logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
422
580
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
7.2
8.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.29
Passing Yards
314
441
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
34/42(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.48
Rushing Yards
108
139
Rush Attempts
17
24
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.66
-3.62
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-39
Sack EPA
-1.27
-6.27
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
78
40
Penalty EPA
-8.93
-3.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-16.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
10/28
-2.1
35
11/04
-1.9
36
11/18
10.8
97
11/22
6.1
87
12/03
5.5
84
12/09
1.2
58
12/23
-0.2
48
12/30
0.6
54
01/06
-3.0
30
09/09
0.1
50
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
11/18
-0.7
45
11/25
-4.8
20
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
-0.8
43
12/16
5.8
86
12/23
11.9
98
12/30
6.1
88
01/05
1.4
59
01/12
4.9
81
09/08
3.6
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Commanders logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
11
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Packers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17

EPA

EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
25
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/18
25
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
10
W
W
U
01/06
-10
L
L
U
09/09
-6
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/25
-28
L
L
U
12/02
9
W
W
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
8
W
W
U
12/23
48
W
W
O
12/30
-3
L
L
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-14
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
O