WASCommanders
0-1
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
56°F
4 mph
38
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
56°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
13
20
Packers
10
14
14
0
38
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
580
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
7.2
8.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.29
Passing Yards
314
441
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
34/42(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.48
Rushing Yards
108
139
Rush Attempts
17
24
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.66
-3.62
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-39
Sack EPA
-1.27
-6.27
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
78
40
Penalty EPA
-8.93
-3.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-16.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U