WASCommanders
2-4
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
11 mph
24
GBPackers
5-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
0
3
10
Packers
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
430
304
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.08
Passing Yards
235
247
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.31
Rushing Yards
195
57
Rush Attempts
29
15
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.76
-4.91
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-33
-27
Sack EPA
-8.67
-6.15
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
50
36
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+33.8
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+73.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-75.1
Market Regression
-30.6
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-75.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U