WASCommanders
3-9
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
10 mph
20
GBPackers
9-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
6
15
Packers
14
0
3
3
20
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
341
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
141
167
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.16
Rushing Yards
121
174
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.07
-4.70
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-29
-28
Sack EPA
-7.45
-9.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+351
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,314
Home Field
+39.4
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+44.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-36.4
Market Regression
-24.4
Final Difference
310.5
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-36.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U