nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ packers week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-9
15
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
10 mph
20
GBPackers
9-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
6
15
Packers
14
0
3
3
20

Spread

WAS logo
+13

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
262
341
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
141
167
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.16
Rushing Yards
121
174
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.07
-4.70
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-29
-28
Sack EPA
-7.45
-9.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+351
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,314
Home Field
+39.4
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+44.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-36.4
Market Regression
-24.4
Final Difference
310.5
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-36.4
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25
11/17
-8.7
7
11/24
-6.3
15
12/01
-8.9
6
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
09/22
0.9
59
09/26
7.8
92
10/06
-2.4
35
10/14
1.4
64
10/20
15.6
99
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-2.7
34
11/10
-1.8
40
11/24
-4.3
24
12/01
7.0
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Commanders logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26

EPA

EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Packers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
2
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
10/13
1
W
L
U
10/20
-9
L
W
U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
8
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
11
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/06
10
W
W
O
10/14
1
W
L
U
10/20
18
W
W
O
10/27
7
W
W
O
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/24
-29
L
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O