WASCommanders
3-2
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
033
CARPanthers
1-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
7
7
20
Panthers
3
6
14
10
33
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
407
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.6
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.22
Passing Yards
261
232
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.58
Rushing Yards
92
175
Rush Attempts
23
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.70
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-24
Sack EPA
-7.19
-4.79
Penalties
3
13
Penalty Yards
--
105
Penalty EPA
--
-11.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.2
Home QB Adjustment
+32.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.8
Market Regression
-11.9
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Beck
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
28
28
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
20
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U