WASCommanders
4-5
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
8 mph
44
CARPanthers
9-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
0
0
0
14
Panthers
14
17
10
3
44
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
368
Total Plays
47
75
Yards / Play
4.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.22
Passing Yards
172
226
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.31
Rushing Yards
14
142
Rush Attempts
12
39
Yards / Rush
1.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.78
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
27
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.74
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-35
-20
Sack EPA
-13.44
-3.91
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
68
66
Penalty EPA
-8.37
-3.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
28
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
3
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U