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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ panthers week 11, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-5
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
8 mph
44
CARPanthers
9-0
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
50°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
0
0
0
14
Panthers
14
17
10
3
44

Spread

CAR logo
-7

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
186
368
Total Plays
47
75
Yards / Play
4.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.22
Passing Yards
172
226
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.31
Rushing Yards
14
142
Rush Attempts
12
39
Yards / Rush
1.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.78
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
9
27
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.74
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-35
-20
Sack EPA
-13.44
-3.91
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
68
66
Penalty EPA
-8.37
-3.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
10/19
-5.2
19
09/13
-3.6
25
09/20
2.1
66
09/24
-1.2
42
10/04
5.8
86
10/11
-3.2
28
10/18
-3.8
23
10/25
12.6
99
11/08
-2.5
32
11/15
5.8
86
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
01/10
1.6
62
09/13
-3.6
24
09/20
3.2
74
09/27
8.0
93
10/04
-1.0
44
10/18
-1.5
39
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45
11/08
8.8
95
11/15
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
28
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
3
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-27
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/24
-11
L
L
O
10/04
3
W
W
U
10/11
-6
L
W
U
10/18
-14
L
L
O
10/25
1
W
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/15
33
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-14
L
L
O
09/13
11
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
P
09/27
5
W
L
O
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/18
4
W
W
O
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O
11/08
8
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
W
U