WASCommanders
1-0
28
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
031
LARRams
0-1
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
8
7
7
0
22
Rams
3
13
7
8
31
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
454
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
6.3
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
197
301
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.11
Rushing Yards
176
153
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.46
-17.13
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-1.94
-2.40
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
96
60
Penalty EPA
-11.26
-9.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,331
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
23
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U