WASCommanders
4-1
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
30
BALRavens
3-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
3
10
23
Ravens
3
14
10
3
30
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
484
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
5.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.24
Passing Yards
253
308
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
11.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.42
Rushing Yards
52
176
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.12
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-3.30
-3.19
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
46
33
Penalty EPA
-7.65
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.9%
Spread Pick
Ravens-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+34.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.5
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
199.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+32.5
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+34.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
19
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U