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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ ravens week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-1
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
30
BALRavens
3-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
3
10
23
Ravens
3
14
10
3
30

Spread

WAS logo
BAL logo
7
P

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
305
484
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
5.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.24
Passing Yards
253
308
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
11.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.42
Rushing Yards
52
176
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.12
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-3.30
-3.19
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
46
33
Penalty EPA
-7.65
-4.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+34.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.5
Market Regression
+4.2
Final Difference
200.9
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+32.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.9
84
09/15
-0.7
44
09/23
8.3
93
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
1.8
61
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+34.8
Value
Ptile
12/17
-0.6
45
12/25
5.9
86
12/31
13.5
99
01/20
10.5
98
01/28
-1.1
43
09/05
9.7
96
09/15
0.7
53
09/22
9.2
95
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
10.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Commanders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1

EPA

EPA / Play
4
19
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
2
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Ravens logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
1
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
1
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-30
L
L
O
12/17
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-17
L
L
U
01/07
-28
L
L
O
09/08
-17
L
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/29
28
W
W
O
10/06
21
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
14
W
W
O
12/31
37
W
W
O
01/06
-7
L
L
U
01/20
24
W
W
P
01/28
-7
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
P
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/06
3
W
W
O