WASCommanders
-
40
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
032
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
10
10
10
40
Saints
7
1
3
15
26
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
459
360
Total Plays
71
65
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.02
Passing Yards
306
326
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
24/52(46%)
Yards / Pass
11.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.08
Rushing Yards
153
34
Rush Attempts
43
11
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
27%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.28
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-13
Sack EPA
-2.50
-3.49
Penalties
12
12
Penalty Yards
127
107
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-13.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model79.9%
Spread Pick
Saints-8.5
Expected Value
+14.5%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+275
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+23.5
Home QB Adjustment
+33.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
+4.5
Final Difference
240.0
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
No recent game data available
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+33.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
12
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U