WASCommanders
4-5
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
7-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
10
7
7
7
0
31
Saints
10
3
0
18
3
34
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
537
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
6.8
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.20
Passing Yards
300
375
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.25
Rushing Yards
156
162
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.17
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-22
-10
Sack EPA
-2.55
-2.90
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
67
54
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-8.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+65.5
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U