WASCommanders
8-5
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
019
NOSaints
5-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
3
3
20
Saints
0
0
7
12
19
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
245
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
189
176
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
15/33(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.03
Rushing Yards
137
69
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.61
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-37
-29
Sack EPA
-11.51
-5.71
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
84
36
Penalty EPA
-10.67
-5.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-179
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.8
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-110.2
Home QB Adjustment
-78.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
J. Haener
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-78.1
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
8
12
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U