WASCommanders
4-5
26
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
4 mph
29
SEASeahawks
5-3
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
6
3
3
14
26
Seahawks
3
6
7
13
29
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
489
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
5.8
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.14
Passing Yards
288
369
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.11
Rushing Yards
68
120
Rush Attempts
14
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
47%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.81
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-5.54
-1.53
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-6.89
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
Commanders+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+74.7
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
121.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
10
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
12
32
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U