WASCommanders
3-7
23
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
13 mph
17
SEASeahawks
4-6
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
0
16
23
Seahawks
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
250
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
306
126
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
14/30(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.23
Rushing Yards
110
124
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.80
-1.77
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-2.08
-5.56
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
115
91
Penalty EPA
-12.41
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
-58.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
T. Jackson
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U