DALCowboys
2-1
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
10 mph
17
SF49ers
1-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
7
3
24
49ers
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
295
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
234
189
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.01
Rushing Yards
194
106
Rush Attempts
39
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-0.37
-1.37
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
32
Penalty EPA
--
-5.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+88.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
+20.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
6
28
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
10
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U