nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ 49ers week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-1
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
10 mph
17
SF49ers
1-2
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
7
3
24
49ers
7
7
3
0
17

Spread

DAL logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
428
295
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
234
189
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.01
Rushing Yards
194
106
Rush Attempts
39
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
43%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.91
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-0.37
-1.37
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
32
Penalty EPA
--
-5.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+88.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
+21.4
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
-1.5
37
09/18
1.1
57
09/25
8.1
93
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
11/22
2.7
70
11/29
2.5
68
12/06
2.7
70
12/13
-7.8
5
12/20
-5.6
13
12/27
0.4
53
01/03
1.5
62
09/12
2.2
66
09/18
-1.3
38
09/25
-3.3
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cowboys logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
2
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
6
28
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
49ers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
10
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
4
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
10
W
W
U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-3
L
P
U
12/27
-10
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
14
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-16
L
L
O
11/29
-6
L
W
U
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/13
-14
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/27
-15
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O