DALCowboys
1-1
14
TBD
Soldier Field
82°F
4 mph
31
CHIBears
0-2
TBD
Soldier Field
82°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
11
0
0
14
Bears
14
10
7
0
31
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
385
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.9
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.26
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
34/46(74%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.64
Rushing Yards
121
87
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.88
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.84
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
41
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-6.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
-17.7
Final Difference
4.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
21
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U