DALCowboys
8-4
41
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph
28
CHIBears
5-7
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
21
6
41
Bears
0
7
0
21
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
378
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.12
Passing Yards
203
--
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.13
Rushing Yards
194
37
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
57%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.53
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.64
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
97
54
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-8.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
Bears+4.0
Expected Value
+14.6%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
-40.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U