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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ bears week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
8-4
41
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph
28
CHIBears
5-7
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
35°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
21
6
41
Bears
0
7
0
21
28

Spread

DAL logo
-4

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
397
378
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.12
Passing Yards
203
--
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
32/46(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.13
Rushing Yards
194
37
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
57%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.53
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.64
--
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
97
54
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-8.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.6%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
-41.3
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
09/14
-2.8
31
09/21
3.7
75
09/28
7.4
90
10/05
4.2
78
10/12
3.3
73
10/19
4.1
78
10/27
-5.1
19
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
-0.6
46
09/28
1.7
63
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
11/09
-4.7
22
11/16
7.2
89
11/23
-4.6
22
11/27
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Cowboys logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
8
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Bears logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8

EPA

EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
2
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
3
W
W
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/12
7
W
W
O
10/19
10
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/02
-11
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O